Opening Remarks:
In his capacity as program director for the event, Mr. Yasushi Naito, Executive Advisor to Director General, Africa Department at the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), welcomed the participants to the seminar and thanked the co-organizers, the NEPAD Planning and Cooperation Agency and the Pretoria office of the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) for their support. He explained the role of JICA as an international development agency and emphasized the importance of Agenda 2063.
He noted that that Agenda 2063 will feature prominently at the AU summit scheduled for Johannesburg in June/July 2015. To that end the seminar was a valuable opportunity to obtain feedback from the most recent summit in Addis Ababa and to reflect on progress.
Speaking of behalf of the ambassador of Japan to South Africa, Mr. Shinichi Asazuma, Minister, in the Embassy, explained that Japan shares with Africa the aspirations of Agenda 2063, such as inclusive growth and sustainable development, good governance, democracy, respect for human rights, justice and the rule of law, and unleashing the potential of women and youth. He noted that Agenda 2063 provides an opportunity to understand the challenges and opportunities of the future. Japan has been building a strong, long term commitment to African development through the process of TICAD (Tokyo International Conference on African Development), co-organized with the World Bank, UN, UNDP, and the African Union Commission. As a result of TICAD, in Yokohama in 2013, the government of Japan announced a commitment of approximately 32 billion USD in five years from then, with an emphasis on infrastructure and human resource development, based on African ownership and international partnership. Mr Asazuma explained that Japan’s commitment to TICAD V is clearly in line with the concept of Agenda 2063. He explained that empowerment of women is also an important political agenda in Japan as set out by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Next year, the first TICAD leaders’ conference, TICAD VI, will be held in Africa and that Agenda 2063 will surely be a part of the agenda.
Mr. Dave Malcolmson – Chief Director, NEPAD & Partnership from the South African Department of International Relations and Cooperation then briefly explained the history of the AU and origins of NEPAD. NEPAD was adopted as the socio-economic development programme of the AU. The main purpose of NEPAD is to serve as an integrated programme driver for the AU and its organs in key areas such as infrastructure development, agriculture and good security, science and technology, and human resource development. The key strategic framework of NEPAD is a shift from poverty-reduction to growth-expansion. Mr. Malcolmson highlighted the 7 aspirations upon which Agenda 2063 is based. Mr. Malcolmson explained that the AU Assembly met in Addis Ababa on 31 January 2015 and adopted the Agenda 2063 Framework Document and the Popular Version of Agenda 2063. The AU Commission was requested to conclude all consultations and to finalize the First Ten-Year Plan by the June 2015 Summit in South Africa. The Commission was also requested to present detailed roadmaps for the implementation of the Agenda 2063 projects. Mr. Malcolmson went on to explain that Africa must use partnerships to scale up and accelerate its own efforts, not replace them. He emphasized that Agenda 2063 will not replace NEPAD, but rather NEPAD will continue to serve as an instrument to implement the objectives contained in the overarching framework that is Agenda 2063. The main priorities for support include regional integration, infrastructure development, industrialization and beneficiation, and agriculture, including agro-processing. Foremost among these partnerships is the TICAD partnership. The key areas addressed in this partnership are promoting the private sector, using trade and investment as engines of development, strengthening sectoral bases for growth, driving African development through gender equality and women’s empowerment, and enhancing peace-building capacity. Mr. Malcolmson concluded that that the next TICAD summit will have to support both Agenda 2063 and the post-2015 Development Agenda.
The final speaker during the opening session was Dr. Ibrahim Mayaki, the Chief Executive Officer of the NEPAD Agency. His speech was read by Mr. Symerre Grey-Johnson, Head, Partnerships and Resource Mobilisation at the NEPAD Agency. Dr. Mayaki explained that despite the gradual push towards a one-Africa and after 40 years of the formation of African Unity, most African countries rarely sustain a credible national development strategy without major inputs from the Bretton Woods institutions. African integration is a possible solution to this external dependence. NEPAD is the socio-economic programme to accelerate economic cooperation and integration among African countries and a program of action and the implementing arm of Agenda 2063. It builds on previous initiatives to ensure an integrated, prosperous and peaceful Africa, driven by its own citizens and representing a dynamic force in the global arena. He went on to say that Africa is aware of the multi-faceted and multi-dimensional problems ahead. The 21st century saw real change on the continent but guided by the aspirations of Agenda 2063, “Africa will engage global economy as an equal partner, with clearly defined terms of engagement through its continental programmes that will contribute to the rapid and sustainable transformation agenda of the African continent.” He emphasized that Africa’s reflection on its own future will be on how to foster inclusive prosperity, reduce potential for violent confrontations and create conditions for peaceful co-existence. According to him, infrastructure development underpinned by intraregional and global trade is the continents best strategy to trigger industrialization, the major conduit to a prosperous and economically integrated Africa.
Presentations
Dr. Kassim Mohammed Khamis, Expert from the Agenda 2063 technical team at the Department of Strategic Planning, in the African Union Commission then provided feedback from the recent 24th Summit of the African Union (AU) in Addis Ababa. Dr. Khamis reported that the Agenda 2063 Technical document and a Popular Version of Agenda 2063 had both been adopted at the Summit. According to Dr. Khamis, the Agenda 2063 technical document is based on three dimensions. The first is a vision for 2063 – a vivid picture of where Africans would like to see their continent 50 years from now. The second is the transformation framework – the foundations on which Agenda 2063 is being built as well as detailed milestones. The final dimension is implementation – how to get to Agenda 2063 – and includes various aspects relating to monitoring and evaluation, financing, partnerships, communication and outreach. Dr. Khamis then provided a brief overview of the Popular Version, which is to present the technical document in simple and understandable format to all Africans in the AU’s four languages and thereby to popularize Agenda 2063.
After a process of consultation with a broad range of African experts, the First 10-Year Implementation Plan and Monitoring and Evaluation framework will expectedly be adopted during the next AU Summit in Johannesburg in June 2015. The plan sets specific targets and provide indicative strategies at the continental, national and regional level. It outlines the institutional arrangements as to how to implement, monitor, and evaluate the plan at the continental and national level, indicates the potential sources of funding, capacity requirements, and strategies for communication.
Dr. Khamis concluded his presentation by noting that the Addis Ababa Summit requested the Commission to undertake additional consultations and also decided to re-structure the Commission to accommodate Agenda 2063, to integrate the Blue Economy within the Agenda 2063 Framework and decided that the Executive Council of Ministers of Foreign Affairs would deliberate on the Ten Year Implementation Plan at a preparatory retreat ahead of the Summit in Johannesburg.
In a second substantive presentation, Dr. Theodore Ahlers, Senior Associate at the Centennial Group presented on the agenda for action required to realize the goals of Agenda 2063. He did so based on a 2014 book co-sponsored by JICA. Africa 2050: realizing the continent’s full potential[1], was published by Oxford University and consists of a comprehensive analysis and various scenarios for Africa’s future. Dr. Ahlers noted that the book is driven by the aspirations of Africans, and emphasized the importance of capable, inclusive, and accountable states and institutions. He noted that Africa has grown rapidly since the 1990s, but that Africans aspirations have risen even faster. The challenge for Africa’s leaders is to sustain the progress of the last 15 years and to deliver on these aspirations. The high-road scenario that corresponds with Agenda 2063 envisioned a six-fold increase in per capita income by 2050, a ten-fold reduction in the number of poor people with two thirds of Africans part of the middle class and a share of global GDP tripling to 9%. Dr. Ahlers noted that turning vision into reality required an integrated Africa, competitive economies, prosperous people and cohesive societies. After listing five global drivers, largely outside of Africa’s control, the speaker turned to five Africa specific drivers to change namely:
Demographics – is it a dividend or a social time bomb?
Oil and minerals – is it a blessing or a curse?
Fragility – do we speak about growing security or the contagious effect of conflict?
Disparities – the difference between inclusive growth and explosive inequality?
Middle income – a road to prosperity or a trap?
The framework for Africa 2050 is composed of three dimensions: prosperous people, competitive economies, and an integrated continent. He concluded that all of these dimensions require capable states and pragmatic leadership focused on results.
In a third substantive presentation, Dr. Jakkie Cilliers, Executive Director of the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), presented the results from a recent publication “Reasonable goals for reducing poverty in Africa,” that was published in February 2015 by the African Futures Project at the ISS in partnership with the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver. Dr. Cilliers noted that the paper was an updated and revised version of an August 2014 publication that now includes the recently released, newly recalculated 2011 GDP per capita income levels. Using this data the authors were able to propose an updated measure of extreme poverty ($1.75 in 2011 PPP as opposed to $1.25 in 2005 PPP) in anticipation of a new poverty line required for inclusion in the post-2015 MDG’s. Using the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system to analyze the feasibility of eradicating poverty in Africa the authors found that many African states are unlikely to meet the original target or eradicating extreme poverty in Africa by 2030. The paper subsequently modeled four discrete sets of pro-poor policy measures carefully targeted to relieve chronic and deep-seated poverty. Lifting people out of chronic poverty requires social assistance, pro-poor economic growth, human development for the hard to reach, and progressive social change. Based on their work the authors argue for country specific targets, reducing extreme poverty to below 15% by 2030 using 2011 purchasing power parity, and to below 4% by 2045.
Dr. Cilliers stressed the importance of looking at chronic and severe poverty, i.e. people living on less than $1.00 a day (in 2011 purchasing power parity, previously $0.70 in 2005 PPP) given the depth of poverty in Africa. Fully 51% of extremely poor people in Africa live in severe poverty – an indication that dealing with poverty in Africa is a long-term challenge, requiring long-term integrated planning.
Question and Answer Panel:
The subsequent question and answer panel was moderated by Ms. Elizabeth Sidiropoulos, Chief Executive of the South African Institute for International Affairs (SAIIA). After introducing the members of the panel she invited each to make introductory remarks.
Mr. Talla Kebe, Sr. Policy Advisor at UNECA and Acting Head of Knowledge Management and Strategic Planning at NEPAD Agency, is in charge of collating the NEPAD Agency Blueprint for an Integrated Approach to Implement Agenda 2063. In his remarks Mr. Kebe emphasized the role of the private sector in Africa’s development after acknowledging the important role that governments play in attracting foreign direct investment. He called for a human face to Agenda 2063 that ordinary Africans could identify with while underlining the need to focus equally on implementation and planning. During the panel discussion he underlined the need for coordination at all three levels of planning: continental, national, and regional as well as the need to strengthen the capacity of national development planners at the national level.
During his intervention, Mr. Ichiro Tambo, Director General of the JICA Research Institute, underlined three aspects as particularly important for Agenda 2063: inclusiveness, resilience, and equity. Speaking from the Asian experience, he noted the need to revisit the role of government and development agencies. In the past, JICA was just a resource provider. In his view this should change in the future. Japan has a lot of experience with development and he underlined the need to rethink the role of the state and of development agencies. He introduced Japan’s experience in the 1950’s in formulating an ambitious national development plan for doubling national income, Mr. Tambo said that doubling national income was achieved much earlier than expected, since a consensus among Japanese people had been broadly built through multi-stakeholder consultations led by Japanese Government. He also expressed expectation from this past experience of Japan that the Agenda 2063 would strengthen bottom-up approach through facilitating multi-stakeholder consultation with African people. During the subsequent panel discussion he also focused his remarks on the importance of investment in research and development and on science and technology.
After Mr. Tambo, Mr. Joel Netshitenzhe from the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection (MISTRA) spoke about the extent to which all were entering a new paradigm of discourse on Africa. This vision and practical action help to influence self-identity, he noted. We need to ask ourselves, “How does growth impact the human condition?” Infrastructure in sub-Saharan Africa must be seen as an opportunity for industrialization and manufacturing. If we are putting down roads and railways, why should the materials be imported? We need to rethink interactions between the state, the private sector and civil society, to forge a social compact among these partners. We also need to include the ‘think industry’: academics, researchers and think tanks. The policy decisions taken must be informed by science and intellect. We also need to make sure that the initiatives are driven by Africans, not the narrow political objectives of other powers. Economic growth must be premised, largely, on local manufacturing and regional integration, and it must benefit all, he intoned. During the subsequent discussion Mr. Netshitenzhe expressed his concern that when leaders leave office, commitment to pan-African programmes and Agenda 2063 could easily wither and die. In his view this informed the need to institutionalize these initiatives in national polities and to build sustainable capacity.
The final discussant was Mr. Kuseni Dlamini, the Chairman of Massmart/Walmart who reminded participants about the surplus of plans and good intentions in Africa. We just need to follow through and implement them, he noted. There are strong correlations between the private sector and the level of democracy, and the private sector and the level of security. Japan did not develop in isolation, it was open to the world. Global competitiveness must be embraced. Other continents are planning as well. Today’s problems are too big for the state to solve alone. We need to build an Oxford and Cambridge in Africa.
Concluding session
After interaction with participants, Dr. Tandeka Nkiwana, Special Advisor to the CEO of the NEPAD Agency and the Managing Director of the ISS, Mr. Anton du Plessis concluded the seminar by reflecting on the days proceedings, thanked all the participants, the organizers and the administrative staff.
The results of the seminar will feed into TICAD (Tokyo International Conference for African Development). The next TICAD summit (TICAD VI) will be held in Africa for the first time in 2016 and co-organised with the AU Commission, the World Bank and the United Nations.
[1] Se http://jica-ri.jica.go.jp/publication/assets/Africa%202050%20Overview%20final%2029%20May.pdf